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Prediction for CME (2021-05-23T11:38:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-05-23T11:38Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16962/-1
CME Note: Source an eruption from AR 2824 (N21E7) at 11:03Z associated with an M1.1 flare peaked at 11:26Z. A large amount of material moving quickly to the west of the AR in AIA 193/304/171 after the eruption. This CME appears faster than the 2021-05-23T09:53Z CME, and caught up to it in the LASCO C2 imagery, and then appeared as one CME in the C3 imagery. ARRIVAL: T.Nieves-Chinchilla: Signatures of flux rope(s) between 05-26T18Z - 05-27T5:00Z: either two flux-ropes or a single complex structure with internal signatures of interaction. A structure with flux rope signatures starting before 0527T06:00Z with SN rotation in Bz and low temperature. Bulk velocity for the whole period is increasing - also a signature of compression; it seems that there is interaction.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-05-27T05:12Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-05-25T23:58Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note:

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2021-05-23 15:45
 - Time at C2: 2021-05-23 11:38
 - Radial speed: 806.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 31 deg
 - Eruption location: N08W25
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 647.80 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2021-05-25 23:58 (i.e. predicted transit time: 60.33 hours)

Lead Time: 62.03 hour(s)
Difference: 29.23 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2021-05-24T15:10Z

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